OP Group began monitoring the development of different regions and preparing regional forecasts in 2022.

“The forecasts indicate that the economic downturn reached its bottom last year and signs of recovery are in the air,” says OP Group’s Chief Economist Tomi Kortela.

40 per cent of Finland’s GDP comes from Uusimaa.

1. High productivity

Uusimaa is one of the best places for business operations in Finland, and this is not just about the size of GDP.

“The dense urban structure enables efficient interaction between people and companies, which promotes economic growth,” says Kortela.

A special feature of Uusimaa is the large share of services in the GDP. The share is around 80 per cent, whereas in Ostrobothnia, for example, it is only 50 per cent.

The service sector tends to have poor productivity. However, this is not the case in Uusimaa.

“Here, services can mean financial services, consulting and other ICT services that are produced by highly successful companies.”

The productivity of the work is also high. On the other hand, the increase in work productivity has been slow for a long time in Finland, which Korpela would pay attention to.

2. Upturn in housing trade and construction

According to Kortela, the most positive trend can be seen in the construct­ion industry. The collapse of the construction sector to a situation resembling the 90s recession was really brutal. It was so drastic that if construction were excluded from the calculation, Finland's GDP would have grown all the time, Kortela points out.

“The bottom has been reached and the only way is up. Falling interest rates have already begun to stimulate housing trade and will be reflected in construction.”

The outlook for services is also positive. However, we must now catch up with the upturn and make the unemployment rate decrease.

The special feature of the recession in Uusimaa was that the labour market weakened more than in the rest of the country. In other words, if there was a shortage of labour in the past, there is now ample labour available.

3. Export duties are a question mark

According to Kortela, the entire industrial sector has been doing poorly globally, and an upturn has been expected for several years.

Similarly, the important export area of the eurozone has grown more slowly than expected. Nevertheless, Kortela believes that the export industry will increase, even if the year starts softly.

According to him, the greatest uncertainty is related to the policy of the new US President Donald Trump and his suggestions of high tariffs.

“Our current forecasts are based on low tariffs. It would not have a major impact on the economy. But if they come to be around ten percent, all forecasts will go down.”

4. Growth in investments

Although services account for a high proportion of GDP in Uusimaa, Kor­tela still sees room for improvement in the current 80 per cent.

“In the United States, the share of the service sector as a whole is 90 per cent. For this reason, I believe there is still room for productive services.”

Investments in the construction sector in Uusimaa are promising.

“The amount of investments has increased slightly more than in the rest of the country and will increase towards the end of the year. At the start of next year, we will be already well underway.”

Similarly, machinery and equipment investments have been at the same level with the rest of Finland.

“The elements of broad-based economic recovery and growth can be seen this year.”

“Uusimaa is one of Finland’s best places for business.”

5. Falling interest rates accelerate economic recovery

Kortela considers the current interest rate trend to be the most important sign of recovery and a positive driver for the future.

According to him, the financial situation of households is strong and the degree of savings is high. Consumption should now increase in order to be transferred to services.

“Market interest rates have fallen substantially, they are now almost half of what they were at their highest. I believe that they will settle at just over two per cent by the summer,” says Kortela.

“By the end of the year, this will be reflected in the real economy as increased consumption and investments.”